Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
