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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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